TRADES FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY, JANUARY 15, 2013
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.
CRUDE SETTING UP FOR A "SPILL?"
Crude has been setting up several technical indicators that could set up a potential sell off at least near term. It now has a double top on the daily chart and on the long term charts it is pushing into resistance. For a possible approach see Trade Alert below:
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GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: The purpose of the Update is to acquaint you with the technical aspects of markets and trading. What I convey to readers is not my personal opinion but what the markets are suggesting by their technical formations and action. I do the technical analysis that most of you do not have the time for. The Update is also designed to help you learn about the markets and trading. It is also a tool and guide for those who want to compare it with their own work.
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TRADING THOUGHTS TO REMEMBER:
The odds of picking a top or bottom are 1 in 200. That is why you use probabilities to guide you.
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be.
IMPORTANT NOTES RE TRADE ALERTS: My trades are normally entered on buy or sell signals. I do not enter new positions during the night session. If the potential trade is not reached during the day session, the trade is not initiated. Computation of costs includes commission plus estimated exchange fees.
Sell April mini crude oil. Sell 96.90 stop. Protective stop 98.66. Potential projection 94.00. (Potential risk $880. Potential reward $1575). Margin: $2475.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly are in resistance.
2. On the weekly chart crude is at the high end of the Bollinger band as well. That tends to be resistance.
3. On the daily chart crude has been attempting to get over the 98.00 resistance since the end of January without success. It attempted today and started to sell off.
4. On the daily chart crude formed a double top today. Technically that suggests a trend change from up to down.
5. On the daily chart a sell would push crude under both the 20 & 10 dma.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell March aussie. Sell 102.95 stop. Protective stop 103.45. Potential projection 101.00. (Potential risk $500. Potential reward $1950). Margin: $1650.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart the aussie triggered a sell this month.
2. On the monthly chart the aussie has a previous sell that is still intact.
3. The weekly chart triggered a sell several weeks ago.
4. On the weekly chart the aussie sold off under the 10, 20 & 100 dma last week. That is negative.
5. On the daily chart the aussie rallied up to resistance and stopped.
6. On the daily chart the aussie has been in a downtrend since the Jan. 10 high. The recent rally could be the set up for a third wave down.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long March dollar from 79.900 up to 80.100.
METALS & ENERGY:
MAR COPPER: In my last report it suggested a potential to 380.50. It has done nothing since Tuesday. I have been watching closely to short but it hasn't done enough since the last report to set that situation up. Closed 373.75, down .05.
APR MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell today and sold off 1632.80. It is still holding the low made in early January. Keep stops at 1656.00. Closed 1635.50, down 9.60.
Position: Short 1636.00 (3.14)
MAR MINI SILVER: It triggered a sell today and failed the 200 dma. That is negative. The low today was 30.210. It has some support at 30.000. Keep stops at 31.230. Closed 30.353, down .516.
Position: Short 30.523 (3.14).
APR MINI CRUDE OIL: I tried to short it today. The price was not reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 97.90, up .30.
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: It is once again attempting to consolidate. This is the most extensive attempt mid January. It did reach some minor support around 105.80. It may try to rally but there isn't enough technical support to warrant a trade. Just watching. Closed 107.53, up .52.
MAR SWISS FRANC: It triggered a sell today and sold off to 108.18. It had gone through my price during the night session. I entered on a rally. Keep stops at 109.30. Closed 108.40, down 61.
Position: Short 108.55 (3.14).
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It rallied to 80.710 today. Move stops up from 79.900 up to 80.100. Closed 80.538, up .371.
Position: Long 80.380 (2.11).
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: It went through my sell price during the night. It rallied this morning but not enough to warrant entering the trade. It has been in a very tight range. Just watching. Closed 133.50, down 1.01.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: I tried to short it. It rallied instead. It did reach some resistance today. Just watching. Closed 99.78, up .04.
MAR AUSSIE: I tried to short the aussie but it rallied instead. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 103.28, up .12.
MAR B-POUND: Another new low today at 154.71. The monthly chart is triggering a sell this month and the pound looks headed for the low end of its huge range that goes back to Sept. 2010. The low end is at 151.80, approximately. Before that there is some support at 153.30. Just watching. Closed 154.82, down .57.
MAR EMINI S&P: It made a new high yesterday at 1522.00. Today it could not take that out. Still not enough going on to warrant a short recommendation. Just watching. Closed 1518.50, up 1.25.
MAR BONDS: The congesting referred to last time remains. They sold off to the low end of that range yesterday and rallied right back today. Just watching. Closed 143.15, up .27.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions. All known news and events have been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed. From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.