Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Paragon Investments' Futures File: Natural Gas, SoyOil, and Metals
Chris Haverkamp - IF - Fri Feb 17, 12:38PM CST

Heat Wave Deflates Gas Prices

Natural gas prices are collapsing, reaching a three-month low near $2.83 per million British thermal units.

The market is selling off as temperatures across the U.S. are projected to be 15-30 degrees warmer than usual this weekend, sapping demand for the heating fuel. Overall, this winter was extremely warm; the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), estimates that heating demand for natural gas is nearly 20% below average.

Without significant heating demand, natural gas inventories could stay near record levels and may pull prices lower still.

Longer-term, the U.S. natural gas market may be increasingly dependent on exports to keep demand in line with production. Foreign sales have been rapidly increasing, especially to Mexico, although exports still account for less than 5% of U.S. production.

Vegetable Oil Slides Lower

The market for soybean oil (labeled “vegetable oil” in the supermarket) is looking cloudy; prices dropped beneath 33 cents per pound on Friday for the first time since October.

Bean oil is falling even as the price for soybeans has been robust. Demand for soybean meal, a livestock feed ingredient, has been strong, which has encouraged processors to buy more beans and crush them into meal. This crushing process separates the oil from the high-protein meal and has created an abundance of soybean oil.

Soybean oil is consumed widely in the food industry as a cooking oil, processed food additive, and as the basis for many salad dressings, mayonnaises, and margarines, but those sources of demand don’t typically rise drastically to soak up excess supply.

As a result, the soybean oil glut will likely need to be met by exporting the excess oil or converting it into biodiesel, a demand source that currently consumes nearly 20% of U.S. bean oil.

Metals Rocket on Global Anxiety

Gold and silver have been blasting higher, driven primarily by global concerns.

While our government has been battling internal leaks and allegations against former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, there have been major missile launches by North Korea, Russia, and Iran, a signal that America’s adversaries may be testing limits on the global stage.

These actions inspired fearful investors to buy gold and silver, which reached $1245 and $18 per ounce on Friday, respectively.


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