Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Subtle Or, Not
Jerry Welch - IF - Mon Jul 17, 1:00PM CDT

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite



The session is mixed everywhere I look. Some grains higher, others lower. The same can be said for the critter complex. The soft or tropical markets are doing the same and while crude oil prices are lower, natural gas is higher. This is one of those days where there is something for everyone.


When trading is mixed as it is that does not mean there are no trading opportunities. Oftentimes, the opportunities that surface are subtle in nature. This morning, in fact, my work suggested that shorts can be placed in October live cattle with long positions placed with October lean hogs.


I specifically suggested the following in a Special Email Alert!

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


As a new trade: buy (1) October lean hog and sell (1) October live cattle at the market. October hogs are down 2 at $67.15 with October cattle down 42 at $118.15. Use 125 points, close only from entry as a stop.

The time is 9:30 a.m.Chicago

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My work flashed a signal to,” buy hogs and sell cattle” just before cutout values were announced in the morning. Boxed beef prices jumped $.57 and pork rose $.80. But there was a whopping $8.37 rise with cash bellies and that prompted me to move my buy stops on short August hogs from $83.35 (mentioned last week on Inside Futures) down to $81.00, intra-day and a few minutes ago my stops were elected. The news regarding pork cutout may spark another stiff rally with hogs into tomorrow since the cash index is far over futures.


I will come out of the day with longs in October hogs and short in October cattle. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have sold August cattle that are down 85 points and bought August lean hogs that are 90 higher. But maybe the short Aug. vs. Aug. cattle/hog spread is an omen for the short Oct. vs. October cattle/hog spread. Time will tell.


Again. Trading is mixed and the signal my work is flashing is a subtle one, selling cattle and buying hogs. Will it work, subtle or not? Stay tuned!

The time is 1 p.m. Chicago






“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”




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