Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Mike Seery's Daily Commodity Report 11-14-17
Michael Seery - IF - Tue Nov 14, 2:31PM CST

Dollar Index Futures---The U.S dollar in the December contract is trading lower by 36 points currently at 94.02 right near a 3 week low possibly creating a double top around the 95.05 level as I am not involved in this market, but I'm looking at a possible short position in the days ahead.

The U.S dollar is trading below its 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average as this market has stopped its bullish momentum and now has a mixed trend with the next major level of support around 93.36 & if that is broken you have to think that the bearish trend could ensue. The volatility in the U.S dollar is relatively low just like the rest of the commodity markets as we head into the holiday season as my only recommendation out of the currency markets is a bearish Mexican Peso which I've been involved in for over 2 months as I will keep a close eye on this market as a possible double top may have been created.

In my opinion for the commodity markets to start to increase there volatility and start some bullish trends you need a weak U.S dollar as this is the key influence on the commodity sectors going into 2018.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---LOW

Natural Gas Futures--- Natural gas futures in the December contract are trading sharply lower for the 2nd consecutive session down another 8 points at 3.08 looking to fill the price gap in my opinion & as I've talked about in my previous blogs there is a price gap between 3.00/3.05 as I think that will be filled in the coming days ahead as I do not like gaps as they are generally filled within a short period of time.

Natural gas prices are trading right at their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average after hitting a 6 week high in Fridays trade as warmer weather in the Midwestern part of the country are putting pressure on prices here in the short-term as I am currently not involved, however I will be looking at a bullish position in the weeks ahead.

We are now starting to enter the extremely volatile winter season for natural gas as extremely cold temperatures can cause tremendous spikes in price and if you look at the monthly chart you will see some extraordinary moves to the upside in the months of December, January, and the month of February as I will not take a short position as the volatility will be to the upside not the downside so be patient & let the gap be filled which could happen in tomorrows trade.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

Corn Futures--- Corn futures in the March contract are trading slightly lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session down 1 penny at 3.54 a bushel continuing its slow grinding bearish momentum as the large money manage funds are short 205,000 contracts as they still believe lower prices are ahead.

Corn futures hit a fresh contract low in today's trade as I do think prices will continue their slow ground to the downside possibly going down to about 3.40 a bushel as I will not take a short position as prices are limited in my opinion, but if you are short place the stop loss at the 10 day high standing at 3.56 as the chart structure is solid at the present time due to the extremely low volatility.

At the present time 83% of the corn crop has been harvested in the United States slightly behind schedule as that still means there is about 3 billion bushels left out in the fields as worldwide supplies are absolutely huge & at the present time there is nothing bullish about this commodity except for possible short covering.

Currently I do not have any grain recommendations as corn is starting to put pressure on soybean prices which were lower again in yesterdays trade as this whole complex looks weak at the present time, but look at other markets with better monetary potential & higher volatility in my opinion as the volatility in corn will not increase until 2018.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---LOW

TRADING THEORY---Trade with the short term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend but sometimes you will be in a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade.

If it was up to me I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side.

I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20 day high or low as a trendy market, if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending.up or down and go in that direction remembering the money management rules of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

Mexican Peso Futures---The Mexican Peso in the December contract is currently trading lower by 7 points at 5191 as this market's volatility has come to a crawl over the last 2 weeks with very small trading ranges on a daily basis.

I have been recommending a short position for over 2 months with an average price on 2 contracts around the 5330 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at the 2 week high standing at 5238 as the chart structure will not improve due to the fact that prices have gone absolutely nowhere in recent days.

The Mexican Peso is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is lower, however for the bearish momentum to continue we have to break the October 27th low of 5127 as I also am becoming bearish the U.S dollar as that market is down over 50 points today as both of these currencies could go down simultaneously which is unusual

. I will be recommending another short position if prices do break 5127 because if that does occur I think we could still head into the high 40s as you have to remember in January 2017 we were trading around the 43 level, but this market is putting me to sleep due to extremely low volatility.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

Crude Oil Futures--- Crude oil futures in the December contract are down a $1.10 at 55.65 a barrel despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 3 week low today down around 70 points as prices in the energy sector are lower across the board as profit-taking has ensued in today's trade.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 53.15 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss which now has been raised to 53.99 and in Thursday's trade will be raised again to 54.40 as the chart structure is becoming outstanding at the present time.

Oil prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average, however for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the November 8th high of 57.92 as the volatility has started to increase which is an excellent thing to see in my opinion as I remain bullish the entire equity sector.

Strong worldwide demand continues to prop up prices plus major problems politically speaking in the country of Saudi Arabia, however the U.S stock market has stalled right near all-time highs which is also keeping a lid on prices here in the short term.

Continue to place the proper stop loss as I will be looking at a recommendation to add another position possibly in tomorrows trade as the risk/reward are favorable due to the fact that the monetary risk at this time is relatively low as the chart structure will become excellent.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

Gold Futures--- Gold futures in the December contract are currently trading higher by $4 at 1,283 an ounce as I am currently sitting on the sidelines, but I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break 1,293 while then placing the stop loss at the 10 day low standing at 1,265 risking around $30 or $3,000 per large contract or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage & commission as the chart structure is outstanding due to the fact that the volatility remains low.

The U.S dollar was down 70 points as a possible double top may have been created around the 95 level and if this trend continues to go lower that tells me that gold prices have bottomed out and will head higher as we have tested the 1,265 level probably 1/2 dozen times and has been upon able to crack that level.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average for the 1st time in quite some time as the trend remains higher & if the 1,293 level is broken I think we will retest the October 16th high of 1,308 as I am also bullish silver prices while bullish most of the commodity markets across the board despite today's trading action as there is a possibility that the U.S dollar has topped out and will start to head lower while adding fuel to the fire to the bullish trends that are occurring at the present time despite the fact of the slow grinding momentum

TREND: MIXED---HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

There are different theories about how long does a meaningful consolidation has to last before you enter a trade ? In my opinion I always want to see a consolidation that lasts at least 8 or more weeks before I would consider entering.

The reason that I want a longer consolidation is to try and avoid a bunch of false breakouts such as a 10 or 15 day consolidations which happen all the time, so I am trying to put the odds in my favor by trading the breakout of at least 8 weeks or more and the longer such as a 10 or 13 week consolidation the better.

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTACOMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Skype Address: mseery TWITTER---@seeryfutures

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Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.


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