Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Tax Cuts and Infrastructure Plans Back on Front Burner
Alan Bush - IF - Fri Apr 21, 9:36AM CDT

April 21, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Yesterday’s sharp gains can be attributed to increasedexpectations for tax cuts and fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration with gains accelerating late in the session after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the administration planned to release a tax plan "very soon."

The 8:45 central time U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to be 53.8 and the 8:45 U.S. services PMI is anticipated to be 53.2.

The 9:00 March existing home sales report is estimated to show a 2.2% increase to 5.6 million.

Recent declines are not the beginning of any new bear market for stock index futures.

CURRENCY FUTURES

After putting in a dismal performance earlier this week, there is some recovery in the U.S. dollar today.

Overall, the U.S. dollar continues to show a tendency to underperform the news.

The euro currency is lower in spite of news that euro zone economic momentum accelerated to its quickest rate in six years.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

At 8:30 Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank PresidentNeel Kashkari will take part in a question and answer session on the state of the economy.

The probability of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 3 policy meeting is 4%, which is unchanged from Thursday and the probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 53%, which compares to 57% yesterday.

Recent flight to quality buying has supported the 30 year Treasury bond futures. At least for now, this flight to quality buying has more than offset the bearish influences of rising global inflation and an expanding world economy.

However, once the geopolitical issues settle down, the dominant influences of a stronger world economy and rising inflation will take futures lower.

*The gold market has all of the major market moving fundamentals lined up on the bullish side, including an expanding global economy, ongoing geopolitical concerns and rising global inflation. Continue to trade gold from the long side.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 17 S&P 500

Support 2348.00 Resistance 2363.00

June 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 99.400 Resistance 99.950

June 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.07110 Resistance 1.07800

June 17 Japanese Yen

Support .91550 Resistance .92130

June 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .74110 Resistance .74550

June 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7503 Resistance .7540

June 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 153^20 Resistance 154^16

June 17 Gold

Support 1278.0Resistance 1292.0

July 17 Copper

Support 2.5450 Resistance 2.5850

June 17 Crude Oil

Support 50.47 Resistance 51.40

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email atalan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.


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