If we were to believe that we have a 4.1 % unemployment rate (while reality is that U-6 number is 8.20 % as of January 2018)**, a RECORD stock market (which is suspect without corporate buybacks), a very weak Dollar, but somehow CNBC and the major media tells us that it is statistically a low inflation environment??!?!? Listen very carefully, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED! Anybody who believes that there will be 4 interest rate hikes by Fed this year is completely out of their mind. Simple ECON 101 tells you you're an idiot to think INFLATION will stay FLAT! YES I SAID IDIOT, DON'T LISTEN TO THE MAJOR MEDIA!
AND YES U-6 is the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER THAT COUNTS, WHILE TRUMP SAID BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED THAT UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WERE SUSPECT DUE TO THE U-6 NUMBER, BUT NOW HE CLAIMS THE U-3 (4.1%) IS SOMETHING TO BE PROUD OF. Complete B.S.
The reality is that the U.S. government tells us that unemployment is LOW! The reality is that there are jobs out there but most people are having to work 2-3 jobs on a regular basis to pay for the inflationary bill that the U.S. GOVERNMENT'S IRRESPONSIBLE SPENDING HAS CREATED for the taxpayer!!
PERSONAL 2018 Forecasts FROM ALPINE TRADING LLC within next 4-6 months will hit these numbers:
S&P 500 - 2000 BEARISH
GOLD - 1600 BULLISH
BONDS - 155-00 BULLISH
SOYBEANS - 12.00 BULLISH
COFFEE - 1.60 BULLISH
In the past year, I have come under scrutiny for my calls on the commodities markets and in general I have been wrong on the timing but right about the market direction. I am extremely BULLISH commodities for the general sense that there is NO LOGICAL PERSON in the world that can say if we have a record stock market (record demand for good and services), extremely low USD because of POOR monetary and fiscal policies (THAT IS BLOODY REALITY), and record commodity demand throughout the world, BUT SOMEHOW that there will be NO INFLATIONARY EXPANSIONS THIS YEAR?!?!? THIS IS SIMPLY WRONG based on ECONOMICS fundamentals. It does not serve a logical argument and should be discredited immediately!
I look forward to your comments whether you are right or wrong, please feel free to contact me at anytime.
Alpine Trading LLC
Tel: + 1 949 357 4948
** DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONSIS SPECULATIVE, INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS, AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.